ABSTRACT
Response to and monitoring of viral outbreaks can be efficiently focused when rapid, quantitative, kinetic information provides the location and the number of infected individuals. Environmental surveillance traditionally provides information on location of populations with contagious, infected individuals since infectious poliovirus is excreted whether infections are asymptomatic or symptomatic. Here, we describe development of rapid (1 week turnaround time, TAT), quantitative RT-PCR of poliovirus RNA extracted directly from concentrated environmental surveillance samples to infer the number of infected individuals excreting poliovirus. The quantitation method was validated using data from vaccination with bivalent oral polio vaccine (bOPV). The method was then applied to infer the weekly number of excreters in a large, sustained, asymptomatic outbreak of wild type 1 poliovirus in Israel (2013) in a population where >90% of the individuals received three doses of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV). Evidence-based intervention strategies were based on the short TAT for direct quantitative detection. Furthermore, a TAT shorter than the duration of poliovirus excretion allowed resampling of infected individuals. Finally, the method documented absence of infections after successful intervention of the asymptomatic outbreak. The methodologies described here can be applied to outbreaks of other excreted viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), where there are (1) significant numbers of asymptomatic infections; (2) long incubation times during which infectious virus is excreted; and (3) limited resources, facilities, and manpower that restrict the number of individuals who can be tested and re-tested.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 outbreak required prompt action by health authorities around the world in response to a novel threat. With enormous amounts of information originating in sources with uncertain degree of validation and accuracy, it is essential to provide executive-level decision-makers with the most actionable, pertinent, and updated data analysis to enable them to adapt their strategy swiftly and competently. OBJECTIVE: We report here the origination of a COVID-19 dedicated response in the Israel Defense Forces with the assembly of an operational Data Center for the Campaign against Coronavirus. METHODS: Spearheaded by directors with clinical, operational, and data analytics orientation, a multidisciplinary team utilized existing and newly developed platforms to collect and analyze large amounts of information on an individual level in the context of SARS-CoV-2 contraction and infection. RESULTS: Nearly 300,000 responses to daily questionnaires were recorded and were merged with other data sets to form a unified data lake. By using basic as well as advanced analytic tools ranging from simple aggregation and display of trends to data science application, we provided commanders and clinicians with access to trusted, accurate, and personalized information and tools that were designed to foster operational changes and mitigate the propagation of the pandemic. The developed tools aided in the in the identification of high-risk individuals for severe disease and resulted in a 30% decline in their attendance to their units. Moreover, the queue for laboratory examination for COVID-19 was optimized using a predictive model and resulted in a high true-positive rate of 20%, which is more than twice as high as the baseline rate (2.28%, 95% CI 1.63%-3.19%). CONCLUSIONS: In times of ambiguity and uncertainty, along with an unprecedented flux of information, health organizations may find multidisciplinary teams working to provide intelligence from diverse and rich data a key factor in providing executives relevant and actionable support for decision-making.